not playing with card

[RMunchkinParticipant]

I moved my question here from a blog post as I think this is an interesting topic.  In a post you made the following comment..

If you don’t care about comps, well, you probably shouldn’t be playing Buffalo Link-type games anyway.

Why?  I mean if you have an edge why would you not want to play this type of game?

[Ben RosenthalKeymaster]

Card Pulling and Card Abstinence

Sounds good. I’ll move the reply here and try to add a bit:

Because it’s a long-run game and very volatile. If I’m not getting comp equity on my spins, I am not interested. Anytime you’re relying on hitting unplanned bonuses or lucky line hits to make or break the play, it’s low on my list of games to check.

Heck, just about every casino has newish installs of Phoenix Link and Lightning 10 Year Storm, and it’s not because they offer a solid advantage to APs.

As I wrote in the Phoenix Link section, “I’ve heard that some casino reps, well aware of advantage play machines and trying to limit their appearances in their casino, fully embrace Phoenix Link’s arrival. They believe the advantage is so minuscule that they don’t mind when pros seek the machines out.”

Buddy Frank, who reviewed my book, noted, “The newest machine I’m watching closely is Aristocrat’s Lightning 10 Year Storm, developed by the great Scott Olive. It’s going to be a long-running hit. I’m confident of that. It does have a persistence element, but Aristocrat has made it significantly harder to exploit, and APs hunting for an edge on this one may find it ends up costing them money. Which, honestly, makes me smile a little.”

This is just my preference, as I know some pros love the action on games like Buffalo Link, Phoenix Link, and Lightning 10 Year Storm and will play them at numbers lower than I recommend.

As you note, “I mean if you have an edge why would you not want to play this type of game?” That’s fair. Again, personal preference, I don’t want that edge to be over a sample of thousands and swing wildly from game to game. Sure, if you don’t mind all that variance, an edge is an edge (however small it may be). But for me, much of the appeal of these long-run volatile games comes in the comps. If I have no comp incentive, I don’t care to play them.

[NickelsParticipant]

“Why?  I mean if you have an edge why would you not want to play this type of game?”

To preserve what’s left of one’s own sanity mainly.

[Ben RosenthalKeymaster]

Hah! Right. This example is going to be a mega stretch, but when a lottery grows to a certain number, it must become +EV to buy a ticket. But do I really still want to buy a ticket?

Now that I have that out of my system, I should say that this thinking isn’t exclusive to games in the “Link” family regarding comps and deciding whether to play.

If I’m not using a card for whatever reason, a volatile, low-edge game such as Wolf Run becomes less appealing. Sure, if the numbers are ridiculous, I’ll still play without a card, but I’m talking about a borderline play.

[Village WolfParticipant]

 

If I’m not using a card for whatever reason, a volatile, low-edge game such as Wolf Run becomes less appealing. Sure, if the numbers are ridiculous, I’ll still play without a card, but I’m talking about a borderline play.

Shouldn’t long plays with low edges and high volatility come with a risk premium? Well known theory in the stock investing community.  I would guess the numbers would just have to be sky high or the player has run out of all better plays.

[Ben RosenthalKeymaster]

Right. It just depends on what you’re looking for when you sit down for a game like this (and this is assuming comps are of no importance in this hypothetical).

If you have the bankroll and you enjoy—or maybe the better phrasing is “can deal with”—some roller coaster sessions, games like this are going to be more appealing.

I’d rather play a bunch of higher-floor, lower-ceiling slots. That said, depending on where you are, you get what you get. As in, at a place like Vegas or somewhere similarly competitive, it’s not like there are primo plays all over the place.

[Author]

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