Edge

[RMunchkinParticipant]

When you are calculating your number for a machine, what edge are you looking for or posting?

Also, what would be really helpful is rather than “this game is 102% at this number”  to have “this game at this number is worth 3 units” where a unit is the size of the bet.

[Ben RosenthalKeymaster]

For the purposes of the site, I am not posting numbers below 100% (at least I hope not!). I am trying to get them just over 100% for the “minimum play” recommendations.

But it’s going to depend on the machine as far as 101% or 105% or whatever else it might be. As in, maybe you can get to a crumb over 100% on a machine like Buffalo Diamond if you know the RTP and you have a colossal sample, but on many, many others, I don’t think it’s possible to give an exact percentage.

Also, with the hundreds of games out there, I don’t have the sample size to attempt to calculate that even if it were possible for all of them. I can say with certainty that chasing an active bonus in Lobstermania is +EV, for instance. Or chasing a Super Stampede in Lucky Lemmings is as well. But how would one go about calculating that versus the other features the game offers?

Maybe someone smarter than me could try to do what you’re describing for some of these games (I still don’t think all). But in the book and on the site, the goal has always been to make this as readable and easy to digest as possible. I try to strike a balance with doing that and providing the data.

Also, I’m always open to amending numbers. Heck, I’ve done that plenty over the years and will surely continue to do that as I get more of a sample and share results with others.

[NickelsParticipant]

Ben, I absolutely agree with that philosophy when it comes to those “short play” type of games, something like Golden Egypt for example, the edge is just so apparent and big enough that I wouldn’t really even think about what the edge is, I’d just think ‘two coins in the first 3, put money in, push button, unga bunga’

But I do think it would be helpful to get into more precise returns specifically with regards to the types of game you’ll be on for a while, things like the Link family of games, big must-hits, uncapped progressives, etc. A must-hit is pretty easy to do that calculation for, sure, most of us could do that on the calculator on our phones…but man…with some of those other ones, especially something like Phoenix Link, it sure feels like pure gambling to go firing away at 1,500 on the assumption that it’s good. I get it though, short of having a PAR sheet (for each jurisdiction and overall RTP you’re calculating for), it’s going to be tough to get to that precise number. It would I think give some members peace of mind on games like this if there was at least an estimate of 1,500 on a 500 credit bet being worth X% or X number of units…especially when you can hit a triple major in the free feature and still lose on this game 🤮

 

[Ben RosenthalKeymaster]

It’s a fair point for sure, and it’s something we may try to do in the future for some of those longer-run games you’re describing.

[RMunchkinParticipant]

What it really boils down to is money for time.  Am I better off taking this $1 play on this machine or this $5 play on that machine?  Just because the unit is 5 times bigger doesn’t mean that play is worth more money.

[Ben RosenthalKeymaster]

I hear you. I guess from my vantage point, and most folks I talk to about advantage slots, play both of those hypotheticals if there’s an edge. Heck, if I see a min-bet Ocean Magic for one spin, I’m often sticking my ticket in and playing.

As far as time investment, most advantage slots aren’t going to take more than 10 minutes on the long end. Of course there are some exceptions, but even many longer-run games such as Phoenix Link won’t take much time if you’re fast-spinning.

That said, I understand where you’re coming from on some of the longer-run plays where the edge might be small.

• This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Ben Rosenthal.
• This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Ben Rosenthal.

[RMunchkinParticipant]

Of course I would play both if possible, but in Vegas where there is massive competition that is often not possible.

[Ben RosenthalKeymaster]

Ah, then you’re talking about whether to invest your time waiting behind a person on Machine A or Machine B. That makes sense.

[NickelsParticipant]

Not just camping behind someone, I see the point now, it’s also about optimizing the route through the casino, which makes sense.

Matters a little less out in the middle of nowhere, because if you have any competition at all, if they got there a day before you they cleared everything out anyway, and if you don’t have competition, you’ll get the place to yourself.

Usually I route towards the bigger games like must-hits that I’ve been keeping tabs on first, because a strong play on those, while it’ll take a long time, is often going to be worth a lot more than running around the same casino or two chasing your own tail on smaller stuff. A MHB $10k that gets abandoned in a strong position may well be worth $3k or more in EV depending just how good a number you get, plus all the coin-in going on the player’s card, tough to find that much EV in a day running around Cash Falls and Scarabs.

I would probably prioritize Hex, Hex-likes, and Regals above most others too. Unless of course you just have super high limit Scarabs and things that are actually getting played, which I guess is the conundrum in Vegas…because that kind of stuff does exist there.

 

[Ben RosenthalKeymaster]

Great logic there.

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