Nicholas Reed.Nicholas Reed<p class=”p1″>I’m wondering how everyone assesses whether or not to play a higher denom bet. I come from the sports betting world where you make a bet of definite value, and if/when you win you know the definite win amount. I use a version of Kelly to decide wager amount in order to protect my bankroll. But with slotting you never know exactly how much you’ll be in for or exactly how much you will win. It makes it difficult to assess if the juice is worth the squeeze. </p>
<p class=”p1″>The inspiration for this post: I’ve played this one Hyper Orbs machine at least a dozen times this summer, all at smaller Denoms. I think I’ve had a small loss only once or twice and won all the other times ranging from $2 to $500. Last night I found a killer play – 11 orbs, at one of the highest denoms. I had enough cash on me to cover a terrible loss but based on my experience figured the risk would be minimal. In the end it took about 300x the bet to hit, only added one orb, and only won back about 40x. </p>
<p class=”p1″>It wiped about 15% of my total gambling bankroll. About 2/3rds through I stopped for a minute to consider if I should keep going, especially since I only added one orb. I decided to keep going – if I walked up and it was 12 orbs, I definitely would have played it. In the end, I’m not that upset about it – I think if I were to have identical conditions in an alternate universe I’d still make the play. But it got me to thinking how other people approach situations like this. Was I wrong to make the play? Wrong to keep going? How do you assess making high denom runs at (usually) lower risk machines? All opinions welcome!</p>
Ben RosenthalUsually, if I think it’s +EV, I am going to play, but there are exceptions:
It’s always nerve-wracking (at least for me) finding some huge bet on a volatile or somewhat volatile game. As you mentioned, it’s often uncertain how much you could be in for and how much the feature will pay once you hit it.
Some folks have a “stop loss” point; as in, they’ll take a shot at something volatile, cap the loss at a certain number, and move on if they don’t hit it before then. That takes some discipline, and it’s not ideal if you’re doing that and building something up to be even more +EV before ultimately abandoning the play.
Then some people don’t play volatile slots to begin with. An older guy I knew from Rhode Island wouldn’t go near anything volatile, regardless of how amazing the board was. I had a fun time trading Ocean Magics and the like for some of his finds.
Ultimately, I don’t see any shame in turning down a play for whatever reason. Some of my friends even call me a “nit” for some of the screens I’ll pass up or sell percentages of.
Ben RosenthalAs hard as it is, especially in the moment, I try to look at games in “units.” So in your Hyper Orbs example, you can think, “Had that been min bet, it would have been a bad loss, but I’ve still had almost all winning sessions before that.” It’s always frustrating to save the bad luck for the biggest bets. I think we’ve all had experiences like that from time to time.
King of HeartsFor me, if it’s a bona fide play, then it’s a play, regardless of the bet size, unless the play is so lengthy that it would likely deplete my entire bankroll without hitting it. As an example, I found a $1 Regal Riches with 15 blues on it at 150 credits per spin a little less than 3 years ago. I only had $1,000 on me, but I put it all in the machine and hoped I’d hit it in 6 spins or less. My plan was that if I didn’t hit it before I ran out, I’d just ask the slot floorman to hold the machine, go to the cage, and use my debit card to withdraw whatever I felt it would take to hit the play; I wouldn’t like paying the transaction fees, but it would be worth it in the end, or so I figured. In this particular situation, it only took 5 spins to hit for a 28-29 unit profit, so I didn’t have to execute my plan, but even if the play had been a loser, I wouldn’t have been unhappy with my decision to play; it was a solid +EV opportunity regardless of the outcome. That said, if it had been 60 purples, 85 greens, or 110 yellows, I probably would’ve passed, because I could very well have depleted my bankroll without hitting, as my bankroll at that time was only 150 units at that bet size. For me, very little (or perhaps nothing) is more upsetting than starting a play and not being able to finish it. (As a side note, after that play, I started keeping $2,000 on me, give or take.)
Applying that to your situation, I would have done the same and played it to completion, win or lose. If I stop in the middle, then my loss is guaranteed, but if I finish the play, then at least I have a chance to make some money back, if not all of it. So, despite the 15% hit to your bankroll, I think you were right to make the play and definitely right to keep going until the end once you started.
Jacob ShapiroOn King of Hearts saidFor me, if it’s a bona fide play, then it’s a play, regardless of the bet size, unless the play is so lengthy that it would likely deplete my entire bankroll without hitting it. As an example, I found a $1 Regal Riches with 15 blues on it at 150 credits per spin a little less than 3 years ago. I only had $1,000 on me, but I put it all in the machine and hoped I’d hit it in 6 spins or less. My plan was that if I didn’t hit it before I ran out, I’d just ask the slot floorman to hold the machine, go to the cage, and use my debit card to withdraw whatever I felt it would take to hit the play; I wouldn’t like paying the transaction fees, but it would be worth it in the end, or so I figured. In this particular situation, it only took 5 spins to hit for a 28-29 unit profit, so I didn’t have to execute my plan, but even if the play had been a loser, I wouldn’t have been unhappy with my decision to play; it was a solid +EV opportunity regardless of the outcome. That said, if it had been 60 purples, 85 greens, or 110 yellows, I probably would’ve passed, because I could very well have depleted my bankroll without hitting, as my bankroll at that time was only 150 units at that bet size. For me, very little (or perhaps nothing) is more upsetting than starting a play and not being able to finish it. (As a side note, after that play, I started keeping $2,000 on me, give or take.)
Applying that to your situation, I would have done the same and played it to completion, win or lose. If I stop in the middle, then my loss is guaranteed, but if I finish the play, then at least I have a chance to make some money back, if not all of it. So, despite the 15% hit to your bankroll, I think you were right to make the play and definitely right to keep going until the end once you started.
In this scenario does 28 units represent $150 x 28? I’m trying to figure out unit sizing in general since every machine and play usually has different dollar amounts per spin.
To OP, I’m trying to figure out a way of assessing plays as well. Listening to Ben literally say on a podcast that he will walk away from Buffalo and Phoenix link even when positive has allowed me to do the same. I know a few pro’s as well, who will also pass on volatile games, high denom or not. To me, 1c and 2c link games can be more damaging to my bankroll and/or session if they eat $300-400 before spitting out a $20 final feature. It likely all comes down to personal preferences and situations. First, if your goal is to spend some of your bankroll consistently and you like making a consistent amount every session or being up every few sessions, skip long-run volatile stuff. Also, your emotional and self-control regulation might be suited for that as well. If a big down swing demotivates you, over-motivates you, or makes you rage bet/gamble, it may be better to reason yourself out of these plays before even entering the casino. Otherwise, you could make a brash decision on the spot to play and feel bad with a loss over and over. I personally enjoy the part-time small consistent wins, the peace of mind, and emotional regularity since I have a family and limited free-time. Next would be competition and time in. If it’s very competitive where you play, or you can only play part-time, it may better to take less volatile consistent wins. In might seem paradoxical, but to me, the more competitive a casino is, the less long run plays I want to take as I might not get enough lifetime plays on that machine to be positive overall, especially part-time.
Quantifying your edge on certain games should also help you know whether to play it or not. Of course it’s impossible to quantify our edge 100%, but through the site, pro’s we may know, other numbers from other free or paid sources should all be put together to better understand a slot. I’d recommend record keeping daily coin in and out, the casino, long run or high denom coin in and out plays themselves. In addition to this, cut off all assumptions about hitting big jackpots and grands. Of course more at-bats on high vol or high denom games give you more chances at big jackpots, but it’s minuscule, while the emotional or bankroll impact may not be.
King of HeartsYes, you’ve got the hang of it. I made $4,265 on the play ($5,265 cash out less the $1,000 cash in), which equates to 28.433333 units, each unit being $150. I’ll attach the photo so you can see where the numbers come from.
Nicholas Reed<p class=”p1″>Thanks all for the input, all good stuff. I think my basic strategy is unchanged. I would make the play again for sure. I’m fine with the emotional toll and appreciate the other factors such as that similar plays don’t come too often, thus creating somewhat long term volatility. I guess I was looking for a rule of thumb like “If I find a rare high denom play, I’ll walk if the possible loss is 20% my bank roll.” Something like that. I think that’s how I’m going to frame it in my decision making if/when I find something like that again. </p>
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