An honest conversation about record keeping

[Raymond SnellParticipant]

I’m about 200 hours into my slot AP journey, and while I have a rough idea of how much I’m up, I did not keep accurate records—and I regret it. Especially compared to my process with poker and sports betting, my record keeping needs a ton of work.

That said, I have a few thoughts on why this may or may not be important here. Please let me know if I’m missing something.

In poker, I think tracking is extremely important because game conditions change all the time. Say you’re a moderate winner in a small player pool. All it takes is a few whales to stop playing, or for the pool in general to get tougher, and you can go from a winner to basically break-even.

Or say you have 2,000 hours logged in Poker Journal with a $35/hour win rate at 2/5, but some of those hands are from 2020. So much has changed in the poker world, the economy, etc. that it would be dumb to say, “I’m going to make $35/hour tomorrow in 2026.” While tracking in poker is far from perfect, I think it’s still extremely valuable data.

In sports betting, I can’t beat the market, but I have a pretty robust process for abusing promos and making a small but consistent amount of money.

If I get a 30% profit boost on a straight ML bet, I don’t really need to track it—I know it’s good. If you hang a line at -110 and I can get +117 on the other side with a promo, I literally don’t need any data. I know it’s good for sure, regardless of the sport, and I’d happily bet it all day long.

I do track every bet in sports, but that’s largely because of the seamless tracking available through apps. I love Pikkit, FWIW. I would love a Pikkit for slots.

The reason I say all of this is that I’m not convinced keeping detailed records is all that important for slot AP.

Other than W/L, hours played, hours driven, and maybe expenses, I’m not really sold on why detailed records are necessary. The edges don’t disappear in the same way they can in poker or sports betting. We don’t necessarily care what the ROI difference is between MT14 and MT22—it’s either a play or it isn’t.

Plus, making a record every single time I find a UTX multiplier sounds insane. So where is the good middle ground?

What is your process for tracking results, and what would you recommend I do as someone relatively new to this?

• This topic was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by Raymond Snell.

[Ben RosenthalKeymaster]

These are all great questions and thoughts. We do have an existing thread that touches on some of this, seen here, but I’ll add what I’m thinking of today.

In poker, I think tracking is extremely important because game conditions change all the time. Say you’re a moderate winner in a small player pool. All it takes is a few whales to stop playing, or for the pool in general to get tougher, and you can go from a winner to basically break-even.

As a non-record-keeper myself and fellow poker player, I would say, In a game with a small player pool with a couple of whales, I am going to notice the moment whale one is MIA. Why do I need a spreadsheet to tell me that? If anything, I’ll notice that before my w/l takes a noticeable hit. That’s more just playing devil’s advocate, as I know many pro or semipro poker players swear by this.

Or say you have 2,000 hours logged in Poker Journal with a $35/hour win rate at 2/5, but some of those hands are from 2020. So much has changed in the poker world, the economy, etc. that it would be dumb to say, “I’m going to make $35/hour tomorrow in 2026.” While tracking in poker is far from perfect, I think it’s still extremely valuable data.

Very true. It would be even more extreme for slots in my opinion. Not that it would be an arrow pointing downward, but conditions change all the time in a casino as games are added or removed, some APs are kicked out or move on, new APs come in, etc.

If you’re going to log data for slots, I think you’d want to at the very least separate info by casino. Likely day and time of day as well. If I am comparing the Las Vegas Strip to some hole-in-the-wall place in Black Hawk, Colorado, I am doing myself a disservice by calling all of it “slots.” It’s apples and oranges.

In sports betting, I can’t beat the market, but I have a pretty robust process for abusing promos and making a small but consistent amount of money.

Sounds interesting. I never really got into sports betting, other than being a small-but-steady loser on mostly NFL parlays, but one of my friends is big into “sharp betting,” which probably doesn’t need quotes but shows my level of knowledge in the subject.

I do track every bet in sports, but that’s largely because of the seamless tracking available through apps. I love Pikkit, FWIW. I would love a Pikkit for slots.

Maybe it’s possible. I’ll have to check out Pikkit more.

The edges don’t disappear in the same way they can in poker or sports betting. … So where is the good middle ground? … What is your process for tracking results, and what would you recommend I do as someone relatively new to this?

I’ll tackle the last one first because I thought of a reply first: It depends what your goal is. I mean, heck, I have a website that tells you “play this; don’t play this.” So it depends if you want to really develop an understanding beyond the surface-level slot stuff. I don’t mean to sound any bit judgmental or anything, as depending on the subject, I’m often quite all right with not investing any more mental energy than I have to.

That said, I make mistakes sometimes. Or, phrased more positively, my data improves as I get more of a sample. I also don’t have every AP game included—yes, I have the majority of them, but never all. New games are also added frequently, so it will take me time to get to those. The point is, if you only read what I have and don’t fully learn what you’re doing, you might not be able to take advantage of other slotting opportunities.

Tracking results if you’re relatively new to this could help you better retain concepts. Or maybe not. It depends how you learn best.

My process for tracking results: These days, I try to track longer-run games and especially newer games. As you said with Ultimate X, there’s no way I’m tracking games like that. Unless there’s some sort of software change, it doesn’t matter if I lose 100 straight hands if I’m playing it when I should be. I can group 150-plus games into that category. (Now, maybe UX isn’t the best example since maybe I just suck at video poker and am making errors on that front, but you get the idea.)

The edges don’t disappear in the same way they can in poker or sports betting.

I’m not so sure I’d be as black-and-white. Maybe not in the “same” way, but the slot landscape is constantly changing.

—

Here’s where I give a disclaimer that I know very little about taxes even though my wife is an accountant: Keeping records of expenses could be useful on that front. I actually have an LLC associated with this now, and again, she had to hold my hand through that whole process. But from the sound of it, it didn’t seem that hard to create one. If you’re a gambling juggernaut: poker, sports betting, slots, whatever else, maybe you become Raymond’s Gambling Consulting Emporium LLC.

If it’s not obvious, I am saying that mostly tongue-in-cheek, but who knows, maybe keeping records of expenses associated with gambling could be useful on your end.

I’d also suggest checking out that existing thread, as we had some interesting thoughts there. If anyone has anything to add, here is the place!

[Short Coin CharlieParticipant]

A couple thoughts that might not add any value to the other thread (so I’m putting them here).

First, think about friends/tourists who tell you about their trip to Las Vegas. If someone asks them “How’dja do?” (I try not to ask this unless I can see someone is clearly itching for me to ask so they can talk my ear off), then

• if they tell you “I won”, then unless they are routinely full of it about everything you talk to them about, then there is no reason to doubt them. (And good for them for having a winning trip)
• if they tell you “I lost”, or “Yeesh, I got massacred”, nobody would make that claim if it weren’t true. So I wouldn’t doubt them either (unless maybe if they owe me money)
• if they tell you, “Oh, I broke even”, that is almost never the case

“I broke even” means either “I don’t know, because I didn’t keep records, and then the vacation cash in my wallet got mixed in with gambling money, and then we split the check with the Leeways at Ping Pang Pong, and of course the bill went on Chet’s card so he could get the damn points on HIS card, and then all the tip money everywhere we went came out of my wallet too, and then I gave my old lady some cash that one time, so I really have no idea if won or lost this trip”, OR it means “I got whacked pretty bad and I am lying to myself about it, or I am lying to you about it, or both, because acknowledging what a loser I am isn’t something I’m prepared to do, and will never be able to do. Plus what I think you think about me matters to me for some stupid reason, so I don’t want you thinking that I’m a loser, even though you know full well that I never take any of your advice that would help me actually win, because gambling is no fun for me that way”.

So, that.

Second, a side benefit of records is they can sometime give you peace of mind when you have a bad session or bad day. “Oh, this is the worst day I’ve had all year”. Is it? Do you know for sure? If you visit casinos more than once a year, you’re going to have a worst day and a best day each year. And barring some coincidence, there probably won’t be any ties, so you’re only going to have only one worst day and one best day. Or maybe you think it has been the “longest wait ever” to spin the wheel in for a bonus game. Once again, is it really? Do you know for sure? They can’t all be the longest wait.

I don’t keep perfect records myself, but some games and some things where I’ve kept detailed records. I can tell you (because of the point changes on my card) that my longest wait for a Wheel at Buffalo Diamond was 1,099 spins. And IF I ever see that game again and IF I find a play, and IF that play goes bad, I won’t feel sorry for myself that “this was the longest wait I’ve ever had”, instead I will have thoughts like “Yep, I’ve been here before, and in the long run things will work out OK. This was bad, but I’ve weathered much worse”.

Similarly, “this is the worst week I’ve had all year” can be confirmed if you keep decent records. It may very well be a shitty week, but it probably isn’t the worst week you’ve had all year. (But don’t give up, it’s only Wednesday, there’s plenty of time yet to go further down the tubes.)

[Short Coin Charlie]

On Short Coin Charlie said

• if they tell you, “Oh, I broke even”, that is almost never the case

“I broke even” means either “I don’t know, because I didn’t keep records, and then the vacation cash in my wallet got mixed in with gambling money, and then we split the check with the Leeways at Ping Pang Pong, and of course the bill went on Chet’s card so he could get the damn points on HIS card, and then all the tip money everywhere we went came out of my wallet too, and then I gave my old lady some cash that one time, so I really have no idea if won or lost this trip”

“…and I’m not counting the $120 I lost playing Blackjack the time Cheryl took forever to go the can before we ate breakfast because I told her to go before we left the room, and she said she was ready, and then she changed her mind as soon as we got out of the elevator, and I had nothing else to do once we were already downstairs, so I would never have gambled at all just then except, I had nothing to do while I was waiting for her, so that loss doesn’t actually count…”

 

[Ben RosenthalKeymaster]

Haha great post.

I’ve also been guilty of the opposite. Someone asks, “How was place X?” If it’s a good friend, I’ll tell them how it was. If the place was amazing, and it’s someone I don’t know all that well asking, I might say, “Eh, it was all right. Plenty of competition. Wasn’t finding much.”

The rationale there is do I really want to reveal some great slotting spot to someone, who then may tell who knows how many people? Not that I fish, but I’ve heard a similar line of thinking with a great fishing spot. Pretty soon, that spot is no longer great anymore.

Although now I have a website that tells people all sorts of stuff, so I’m in no position to wag my finger at anyone for revealing anything slot-related.

[Short Coin CharlieParticipant]

On Raymond Snell said

What is your process for tracking results, and what would you recommend I do as someone relatively new to this?

Some of this might help –

For games in the SlotSlayers Green category, I probably wouldn’t record anything other than what I need for tax time, that is, the net score.

Now, for a hypothetical game in the Red category, let’s say “Amradillo Emerald”, with uncapped bonus spin meters 2X/3X/4X, where Ben’s write-up is cautioning us to never try for the 4X, and gives us play numbers for the 3X and the 2X…I have found it helpful to know

• what is the composition of my Wheels? (Armadillo Emerald does not exist, so I happen to know the distribution is exactly 70% 2X, 20% 3X, 10% 4X. But for other games you can collect data)
• what is the average number of spins it takes to spin each wheel / get one of the bonuses (could be something like 125)
• For games in the Red category, you’re probably going to use your card, so use your point changes to count spins. If it takes $3 to earn one point, and you earn 45 points at $2 per spin, then (math, math, something), and you can count your spins when you get home, if you record your point totals at each “interruption” (bonus won)

Once you have a bit of data, you can make an estimate as to whether or not you think you have enough money to chase a 3X that you just found

So let’s see…the 3X meter is huge…

1. 20% of Wheels will be 3X, so on average I should need 5 Wheels to hit it
2. And it’s $2 a spin
3. And I should get a Wheel every 125 spins
4. And so I should expect coin in of 5 x $2 x 125 = $1250 before I hit that 3X, on average

And then you will have to estimate what kind of cushion it might take. It might take you 20 Wheels to land the 3X or you might get it in the first spin. You will probably lose 50% of your coin in on reels-only while waiting for the 3X you’re playing for, or you might do better/worse.

But knowing what I would need to have on hand, if everything goes according to plan/average, helps me estimate if I have enough money to finish what I started in case things deviate from the average.

So those are the kinds of games where I collect data and that’s the kind of data I collect when I bother

 

 

 

[YumaParticipant]

On Raymond Snell said

 

Other than W/L, hours played, hours driven, and maybe expenses, I’m not really sold on why detailed records are necessary. The edges don’t disappear in the same way they can in poker or sports betting. We don’t necessarily care what the ROI difference is between MT14 and MT22—it’s either a play or it isn’t.

I think you answered your own question there.

[Raymond SnellParticipant]

Thanks for the help guys, tracking red/orange plays is a great idea that I’m gonna start doing that immediately.  I like the idea of not tracking green play beside W/L this will improve my process. Just re reading my thoughts from 18 days ago has made me realize that my record keeping process was shit and I was trying to justify in some weird way. I will check out the old thread Ben

 

Not to get to myopic but how exactly do you record your plays? Is this like a notepad app situation or is there some app to make it more seamless?

 

 

[Raymond SnellParticipant]

On Yuma said

On Raymond Snell said

 

Other than W/L, hours played, hours driven, and maybe expenses, I’m not really sold on why detailed records are necessary. The edges don’t disappear in the same way they can in poker or sports betting. We don’t necessarily care what the ROI difference is between MT14 and MT22—it’s either a play or it isn’t.

I think you answered your own question there.

Ya that paragraph aged like milk

[Ben RosenthalKeymaster]

Not to get to myopic but how exactly do you record your plays? Is this like a notepad app situation or is there some app to make it more seamless?

I am the wrong guy to ask about this, as my process involves playing a machine, texting my wife the result—she must love all these random slot texts—and then using the search function on my phone to see how plays went. Something like “Buffalo Link,” and then 200 texts to my wife/friends will show up (often filled with expletives).

As I’m writing that, I fully realize any app would surely make for a better process. If you have an iPhone, Apple Notes looks like a solid option from what I’m reading online. But if other folks use something else, let us know. Maybe I’ll jump on board too!

 

 

• This reply was modified 3 weeks, 4 days ago by Ben Rosenthal.

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