On King of Hearts said
For me, if it’s a bona fide play, then it’s a play, regardless of the bet size, unless the play is so lengthy that it would likely deplete my entire bankroll without hitting it. As an example, I found a $1 Regal Riches with 15 blues on it at 150 credits per spin a little less than 3 years ago. I only had $1,000 on me, but I put it all in the machine and hoped I’d hit it in 6 spins or less. My plan was that if I didn’t hit it before I ran out, I’d just ask the slot floorman to hold the machine, go to the cage, and use my debit card to withdraw whatever I felt it would take to hit the play; I wouldn’t like paying the transaction fees, but it would be worth it in the end, or so I figured. In this particular situation, it only took 5 spins to hit for a 28-29 unit profit, so I didn’t have to execute my plan, but even if the play had been a loser, I wouldn’t have been unhappy with my decision to play; it was a solid +EV opportunity regardless of the outcome. That said, if it had been 60 purples, 85 greens, or 110 yellows, I probably would’ve passed, because I could very well have depleted my bankroll without hitting, as my bankroll at that time was only 150 units at that bet size. For me, very little (or perhaps nothing) is more upsetting than starting a play and not being able to finish it. (As a side note, after that play, I started keeping $2,000 on me, give or take.)
Applying that to your situation, I would have done the same and played it to completion, win or lose. If I stop in the middle, then my loss is guaranteed, but if I finish the play, then at least I have a chance to make some money back, if not all of it. So, despite the 15% hit to your bankroll, I think you were right to make the play and definitely right to keep going until the end once you started.
In this scenario does 28 units represent $150 x 28? I’m trying to figure out unit sizing in general since every machine and play usually has different dollar amounts per spin.
To OP, I’m trying to figure out a way of assessing plays as well. Listening to Ben literally say on a podcast that he will walk away from Buffalo and Phoenix link even when positive has allowed me to do the same. I know a few pro’s as well, who will also pass on volatile games, high denom or not. To me, 1c and 2c link games can be more damaging to my bankroll and/or session if they eat $300-400 before spitting out a $20 final feature. It likely all comes down to personal preferences and situations. First, if your goal is to spend some of your bankroll consistently and you like making a consistent amount every session or being up every few sessions, skip long-run volatile stuff. Also, your emotional and self-control regulation might be suited for that as well. If a big down swing demotivates you, over-motivates you, or makes you rage bet/gamble, it may be better to reason yourself out of these plays before even entering the casino. Otherwise, you could make a brash decision on the spot to play and feel bad with a loss over and over. I personally enjoy the part-time small consistent wins, the peace of mind, and emotional regularity since I have a family and limited free-time. Next would be competition and time in. If it’s very competitive where you play, or you can only play part-time, it may better to take less volatile consistent wins. In might seem paradoxical, but to me, the more competitive a casino is, the less long run plays I want to take as I might not get enough lifetime plays on that machine to be positive overall, especially part-time.
Quantifying your edge on certain games should also help you know whether to play it or not. Of course it’s impossible to quantify our edge 100%, but through the site, pro’s we may know, other numbers from other free or paid sources should all be put together to better understand a slot. I’d recommend record keeping daily coin in and out, the casino, long run or high denom coin in and out plays themselves. In addition to this, cut off all assumptions about hitting big jackpots and grands. Of course more at-bats on high vol or high denom games give you more chances at big jackpots, but it’s minuscule, while the emotional or bankroll impact may not be.
Jacob Shapiro
