Reply To: Assessing Plays

Usually, if I think it’s +EV, I am going to play, but there are exceptions:

• If it’s some monster bet—let’s say a $50 Buffalo Link—and I’m not properly bankrolled for it, I can’t play. If it’s some fringe 1,350 type of thing anyway, that’ll be the end of it. If it’s like 1,600+ and I can’t pretend like I didn’t just see it, I’ll figure it out (call a friend, call my bank, call someone).
• Once I start a play, it’s going to be very rare that I’ll stop before hitting what I am going for, but I can think of a hypothetical: Let’s say I’m playing something fringe to begin with, and a few spins in I smash something unrelated. While that has no impact on the play, I might think, “Geez, this volatile game on iffy numbers to begin with just threw me a lifeline. Maybe it’s a sign to get off.” Ridiculous logic, but I’ve done that from time to time.
• I’m having a great day/week/trip, and I see some huge bet on something close. Let’s go with that $50 1,350 Buffalo Link again. If I don’t need to show action at a casino, I don’t care if I’m a small winner long term. I’m passing on that most times.
• I’m having a horrible day/week/trip and it’s the same Buffalo Link.

It’s always nerve-wracking (at least for me) finding some huge bet on a volatile or somewhat volatile game. As you mentioned, it’s often uncertain how much you could be in for and how much the feature will pay once you hit it.

Some folks have a “stop loss” point; as in, they’ll take a shot at something volatile, cap the loss at a certain number, and move on if they don’t hit it before then. That takes some discipline, and it’s not ideal if you’re doing that and building something up to be even more +EV before ultimately abandoning the play.

Then some people don’t play volatile slots to begin with. An older guy I knew from Rhode Island wouldn’t go near anything volatile, regardless of how amazing the board was. I had a fun time trading Ocean Magics and the like for some of his finds.

Ultimately, I don’t see any shame in turning down a play for whatever reason. Some of my friends even call me a “nit” for some of the screens I’ll pass up or sell percentages of.