Reply To: Using Magic Treasures to measure casino RTP

[NickelsParticipant]

The problem is it’s such a small sample size to be basing an RTP assumption on. If you measured out your results on that game at the same entry points at that casino vs. results at another casino on just that game at the same entry points, it might tell you something meaningful over a long period of time, or it might not.

A lot of people make assumptions about the RTP of a machine based on how they run on it, but the long run on a slot machine is so unbelievably long that unless you’re meticulously gathering data throughout the lifespan of the machine, including data from plops playing it in -EV spots to fill in the gaps, you probably aren’t going to get a meaningful dataset for that game, let alone the whole casino.

Video Poker isn’t exactly a reliable measure of RTP on slots in a casino either. It probably gives you some idea, sure, but there are plenty of casinos with great returning slots and piss-poor VP offerings, as well as casinos with some solid VP and high limit slots with 88% on the audit screen 🤢