Must-Hit-By Calculator + Fake AP Slots

This topic has 26 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated 1 month ago by Ben Rosenthal.

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July 28, 2026 at 9:33 pm #6373
Ben Rosenthal
Keymaster
We now have a functioning must-hit calculator, which can be seen here. I am not nearly tech-savvy enough to build such a thing—I’m not sure if the creator wants me to name him, so I won’t yet—but from everything I can tell, it looks and works great. For info on how to use it, scroll down to the bottom of the page where it has “how to use this.” If anyone notices any issues with it or has questions, let us know.

This will be great for all must-hits out there: River Dragons, Eagle Bucks, Coin Kingdom, Triple Golden Panther, Mustang Money, and so many more. Any slot where you can input the starting point, the must-hit point, the current point, and how fast the meter rises will be fair game. Further, this calculator has a “two-meter mode,” so we can input two must-hits to get more exact numbers on risk and whether you should play at all.

I will be traveling starting tomorrow, but when I get back next week, I’ll likely build some individual game pages for some of these more common aforementioned must-hits.

We also moved the “Fake Advantage Games” post up to the top of the screen since it’s such an important aspect of slotting these days. It has the name “Fake AP Slots” up top, and it will be continually updated. It’s between “Games” and “FAQ” in the section at the top of the screen (Nav bar). The calculator, named Must-Hit-By Calculator, is up top between “Slot Strategy Guide” and “Message Boards.”

Otherwise, I plan on updating the existing post on Ultimate X Gold quite a bit in the weeks (and possibly months) ahead. I knew it was a complicated game, but I learned yesterday from the top UXG player in the world that it’s much more complex than I could have ever imagined. In other words, what I have currently is a very rough framework that will get almost fully reworked.
July 31, 2026 at 2:43 pm #6413
RMunchkin
Participant
Regarding the MHC – this really is dependent on the RTP of the casino. Do you have some general numbers of RTP for MHB machines in Vegas, both on the strip and locals places?
July 31, 2026 at 4:15 pm #6414
Ben Rosenthal
Keymaster
Yes, definitely true. I attached a photo from the bottom of the calculator. Now, that’s just a ballpark and isn’t Vegas-specific. If you wanted to be exceedingly safe, you could set the RTP to 80%. But to more directly answer your question, I don’t have a true % for the MHB settings on the Strip and elsewhere in Vegas.

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August 2, 2026 at 11:44 pm #6440
Village Wolf
Participant
Trying my hand at the calculator if someone is interested in checking the math.

Watched “Slots of Opportunities” play out Coin Kingdom

All calculations are for the Major $1K he was trying for.

Start Point: $974.7

After 32 spins at $3.75: $975.3

(975.3-974.7)/(3.75*32) = 0.005 per spin percent increase. Or $.01 per $2 played

RTP = 0.90 maybe in Reno you can take a better return but in Vegas a worse one?

Reset = $800 (doesn’t seem to be necessary to know just gives the slider more or less area)

According to the Calculator one should play at around $962.00 on the meter assuming 0.90RTP

Worst case scenario where you lose every spin you will need ($1000-$962)/.005 = $7600.00 which will never happen but may feel like it.

Didn’t count all the spins he took because he was bouncing around the denomination but he hit it at $990.00 after he had invested $768 for a profit of $222

Coin-in = (990-974.7)/.005 = $3060

Also should be careful that this is only on machines that have a fair chance to hit each spin and not weighted toward the must hit by number. So River Dragons (AGT) is not a good game to use this on.
- This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Village Wolf.
- This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by Village Wolf.
August 3, 2026 at 1:51 am #6444
Ben Rosenthal
Keymaster
I’m glad you posted this, as it’s something I’ve been meaning to double-check on with man behind the calculator: that 90% RTP figure. I was going to touch base with him before creating any individual game entries, but since we have the calculator up already, it’s worth nailing down beforehand.

We currently have this:
- Base return % — how much the machine pays back from everything except this jackpot. Most slots sit around 88–92%. Add anything you get back in comps, free play or mailers. If you have no idea, 90% is a fair guess.
I am wondering if 90% is a fair ballpark when excluding the must-hits because I’d think those must-hits are baked into that assumed 90% figure, in which case something in the mid-80% range would be a safer ballpark when the true RTP is unknown (which will be most times).

Anecdotally, I’ve always heard closer to $970 is a better starting point on Coin Kingdom, assuming comps aren’t a factor. I figure the calculator might need a little fine-tuning, but I will check and report back.

Otherwise, that note about River Dragons is definitely true, and we do note as much. That would be the most common machine from AGS, but almost everything from them hits at the very top of the meter rather than at a random point.
August 3, 2026 at 3:11 am #6447
Village Wolf
Participant
And now that I’m double checking, I messed up the RTP setting. I had it set at 87%. If I had set it to a true 90% The HitandRun number would be lower still. Around $952.00

But this does mirror Wizard of Odds Must Hit By calculation for Ainsworth machines. Where m = $1000 , h = 0.1, r= 0.005

I guess my question is about the statement “(taking into consideration the average value of the progressive)”

The general formula for the Target Point can be given as:

t = m × (h + r) / (h + 2r), where:

t = Target Point
m = Max jackpot
r = Rise of meter rate
h = House edge of game (taking into consideration the average value of the progressive)

https://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/mystery-jackpot-ainsworth/
August 3, 2026 at 4:14 am #6448
Ben Rosenthal
Keymaster
I can’t imagine $952 is nearly good enough for a starting point on Coin Kingdom, so we’ll see where we can adjust and update this thread. One of my friends I just spoke to about this uses 80% as a base-game return (excluding the must-hit figure). That’s on the conservative side, but it might end up being closer to what we roll with when the RTP is unknown.

Thanks again for sending this.
August 3, 2026 at 1:12 pm #6450
David Younghans
Participant
Agreed. 90% RTP is definitely too high as a default. Changed default RTP to 80% and $ per 1c meter rise to $2.50.

Added a “Reset to defaults” button, since the calculator would still show whatever you used last (so 90% and $2.00 if you were using the previous version). Now resets to 80% and $2.50. You can always adjust the RTP and meter rise to whatever you want, but defaults are now more realistic.
August 3, 2026 at 2:04 pm #6451
Nickels
Participant
@Village Wolf As it turns out, Coin Kingdom isn’t a fairly distributed must-hit either. The must hit by $1,000 goes to and hits at $990 almost 100% of the time and it will almost always happen in a pick ’em bonus.
August 3, 2026 at 2:26 pm #6453
Ben Rosenthal
Keymaster
Much appreciated, all. Yes, I was reading/hearing the same regarding Coin Kingdom too.
August 3, 2026 at 2:43 pm #6454
David Younghans
Participant
Is that true for Ainsworth MHB machines in general?
August 3, 2026 at 3:41 pm #6456
Ben Rosenthal
Keymaster
In my experience and from what I’ve heard from folks who play must-hits more frequently than I do, Ainsworth MHBs can hit at any point. Coin Kingdom would be an outlier. If anyone has different experiences, let us know.
August 3, 2026 at 3:47 pm #6457
David Younghans
Participant
As a table games AP for most of my career, my knowledge of AP slots at this point is far more book learnin’ than actual experience. Let me know if there’s a feature you’d like to see in the calculator or if something could be presented better.
August 3, 2026 at 7:32 pm #6458
Ben Rosenthal
Keymaster
Sounds great. Now that I’m back from the Bahamas, or will be shortly, I’ll have more time to play around with it. I’ll fire off any thoughts here.
August 4, 2026 at 2:51 am #6467
Nickels
Participant
On David Younghans said

Is that true for Ainsworth MHB machines in general?

No, most Ainsworth’s are truly random. I’ve hit majors just a dollar or two up from reset while chasing a minor before, and I’ve seen a patron who knocked down a major, hit it again at 9,000.01 after the slot techs asked him to spin it once for them following the hand pay.
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