How Much Would You Adjust Your Entry Point for Cashback?

Cool thought. While this seems like a personal question, as things like risk tolerance and opportunity cost of time come to mind. I failed to consider the numbers suggested for when something is a play doesn’t take rakeback or any other benefits into consideration.
<p style=”text-align: center;”>I’ve never played any of the longer run machines you mentioned so I can’t answer. To ask a question more my speed, let’s say you were playing on a double point day. How much would that effect your entry point on magic treasure</p>

All right, here’s how I’d approach some of these more common long-run games you mention. And first, I have to acknowledge that these are ballparks. I didn’t run anything through a magic slot simulator, though that sure would be handy.

• Hexbreak3r: Of all of them listed, I think going from a six-up middle to a five-up middle is the biggest leap. Sure, if the outside columns are moderately high and have bonuses up top, that’s a different story, but that’s not really what you’re describing, as eventually those will become reset and you’ll often be left with a mostly naked five-up middle. So, would I play a five-up middle with the rest of the board close to reset while getting 5% cashback? Assuming an average RTP on the game to begin with, I don’t think that would be enough. Yes, it would be so many spins and a lot of cash back, but I think you’d be down too much. How much cash back would you need for something like this to be worth it? I think I would be too close to “guess” territory to even provide a number. “Clearly 5 high is better than reset, but is it better than the overall RTP that factors in all game states?” I would not think if we’re talking about a five high with the other columns low.
• Regal Riches/Prosperity Pearl: “With Regal…if we like 60 purple…I’d imagine we’d like 59 with 3% cashback….but would we go even lower? 58? 57? What about with 5% cashback?” –> Let’s assume the green and gold are reset or close to it, as those numbers being somewhat inflated can matter over a large sample—of course, should you get lucky and trigger either one while on a purple chase, it’s better when that green has 73 built up rather than the reset of 40. So, would I play a 59 purple with 3% cashback? Yeah, I would. I guess the real question is, what percentage is each gem worth? That I don’t know. Would I play a 57 purple with 3% cashback? That one seems really borderline with what I’d assume is a reset green-gold and an average RTP.
• Rich Little Piggies: Again, I am going to assume the yellow and red pigs are reset. Considering I’d usually play a 19 anyway out in the slot jungle, I’d play a 19 with 3% cashback. Yes, I wrote down 20 and have that as the minimum, but I’d be lying if I said I followed everything to a T every time, especially since I often value comps. Would I play a 16 with yellow and red reset and 5% cashback? I would not. Around there is where I’d draw the line. You have to draw it somewhere, even if the difference between a 16 and 17 isn’t a whole lot in a game like that.
• Stack Up Pays/Ascending Fortunes: Another fun, volatile one. It’s tough to say how much I’d lower with X% back since combos are often so relevant in the game. Though for a grand or especially mega chase, the mini and minor don’t mean a whole lot. So let’s say I found a 315 mega, which isn’t even easy to find in the first place, but the rest of the board was underwhelming (low grand and major). If I got 5% cashback on something like that, would it be enough? That would be the lowest I’d go, and that might still be a loser long term. I wouldn’t feel great about it, that’s for sure. At 310 with a reset board, I’d pass unless the cashback just started getting unrealistic. The mega tends to pay significantly more than the grand—I’d have to ballpark at about 2x, though that may be slightly off since I don’t have an enormous sample—so I’d be leery about lowering the numbers for a naked grand chase. A 230, for instance, doesn’t seem close enough for any realistic cashback you’d be getting.
• Wolf Run Eclipse/Cats Wild Serengeti: As I noted in the write-up, I went conservative with the major recommendation, so that would be the one I’d want to lower if I were getting anything back. (Truth be told, I might lower that number in the write-up anyway at some point, as that was based on personal misfortune over a smallish sample.) But if we’re talking about a solo mini chase with the minor and major close to reset, it gets a bit dicey, as the game is so volatile to begin with. I’d put 26 as just over break-even, assuming an average RTP and the other numbers low. Would I play a 25 for 2% cashback? I probably would. A 24? Gun to my head—we need the answer or else!—yes, I’d play the 24 too. At 5%, I probably would start banging away at a naked 22 mini too, even though it pains me to type that and I wouldn’t be sure about it.

1. Would you play a 5 high center on Hexbreaker for 5% cashback? No
2. Would you play a Regal Riches gold at 98 for 5% cashback? No
3. Would you play a 16 on Rich Little Piggies for 5% cashback? No
4. Would you play a naked Mega on Stack Up from 310 for 5% cashback? No
5. Would you play a solo mini on Wolf Run from 22 for 5% cashback? Yes

These are great hypotheticals, as none of them are “obviously yes” or “obviously no.”

Also, if comps are a factor, the answers could change. And if you’re into building multiple cards at casinos—that’s obviously not allowed, but suppose that’s your thing…no judgment here—then you can really start lowering the numbers if you have a whole system figured out. I know a guy who knows a guy who says he makes hundreds of thousands per year just on building player cards. I’m sure he’d be an emphatic “yes” for all of these questions in that situation.

How’d I do? Does anyone else have any thoughts? These are great questions to consider, as everyone’s slotting situation is different.

1. A five high Hex and a 10% return…I’d have to think that would be good enough to play.
2. Right; the status of the green would be important for something like a 98 gold. If we’re assuming reset green and purple with a 98 gold, even 7.5% seems a bit low. At 10% with the same setup, yeah, I’d be in. At 7.5%, I’d want at least something on green—even mid-60s or so. I think at that number, I’d usually get it in range before triggering gold.
3. Indeed.
4. “…you probably will be collecting on the portion of the return that’s in the other bonuses as well as the one you’re chasing, whereas you’re unlikely to collect on a Mega while playing for a Minor.” –> This is true, but couldn’t you just as easily hit the mega and have built up the other bonuses just short of being plays? Yes, you will likely hit a bunch along the way on a mega chase, but there’s still your own building that you’ve done that you’ll then be leaving.
5. Yup, I know some folks play these games a little looser than I do, so that’s fair. In general with games in that “red” category, a rule of thumb is I tend to be more conservative when I’m recommending numbers.

I’d like to echo your point of more discussion. I change my numbers and minimums frequently as I get more of a sample; I don’t think there’s any shame in doing so. No, they are rarely drastic changes, but changes nonetheless. Getting more input and a larger sample in general helps a lot.